Chapter 1: Opening – A Retired Detective's Dry Observation
This morning, my wife looked out the window and said, “What a beautiful day.” Five minutes later, she muttered, “China’s moves lately are kinda scary, huh?” That’s Japan for you—a country that drifts between peace and paranoia, and does nothing much in either case.
Chapter 2: The Facts – A Deliberate Escalation
On June 7, two Chinese aircraft carriers, the Shandong and Liaoning, sailed into the Pacific together—a first. From the carrier Shandong, a J-15 fighter jet approached a Japanese P-3C patrol aircraft at a dangerously close distance of just 45 meters. The next day, another close pass lasted 80 minutes, with the jet cutting in front of the P-3C at 900 meters. Japan's Chief of Joint Staff, Yoshida, made clear: “It was not a mistake. It was deliberate.” And he added, “Our sense of crisis is rising.”
Chapter 3: Analysis – If It Were Imperial Japan...
Back in the days of the Empire, this would have been treated as an act of pre-war provocation. A Chinese fighter jet getting this close to a Japanese military aircraft? You can bet the Empire would've sent destroyers, held press briefings, and made sure the entire nation felt the flames of indignation. Diplomats would draft strongly worded letters while the Navy moved into position. The public would rally under the banner of national honor. It wasn’t always the wisest path, but it wasn’t passive either.
Today? We file a diplomatic complaint and express "grave concern."
Chapter 4: Hypothetical Certainty – If It Were the United States...
If this were the United States? The moment a J-15 came within 45 meters of a P-3C, F-18s would be scrambled. A carrier strike group would move into the region. Media outlets from CNN to FOX would run breaking news on "Chinese provocation." The Pentagon would hold a press conference within the hour, outlining military options.
The U.S. doesn’t ask for apologies. It shows the cost of crossing the line.
This is not just about military might. It’s about perception—a deliberate strategy to demonstrate readiness and resolve. Japan, by contrast, leaves too much space for interpretation, and that space is exactly where China maneuvers.
Chapter 5: Strategic Assertion – From Passive to Proactive Deterrence
This isn't just a one-off incident. Japan needs to stop believing that diplomatic protests alone can deter "changes to the status quo by force."
What's needed is proactive deterrence:
- Strengthen air surveillance in the Nansei Islands and Minamitorishima.
- Deploy P-1 and F-35 units on permanent rapid-response standby.
- Conduct immediate joint exercises with the U.S., and make them publicly visible.
- Communicate defense deployments with deliberate ambiguity, fostering strategic uncertainty.
Furthermore, refresh Japan's diplomatic toolkit:
- Imply, without declaring outright, the development of counterstrike capabilities.
- Shift the tone of diplomatic engagements to include the weight of consequence.
Diplomacy and military deterrence are not separate lanes—they must converge.
So here's my bottom line: Now that Japan has admitted a "rising sense of crisis," it must publicly adopt a new strategy—deterrence through posture, readiness, and ambiguity.
Chapter 6: Final Statement – The True Danger is Doing Nothing
Many Japanese might say, "This is scary," or "Don't provoke a crisis." But I’ll tell you what’s scarier: doing nothing and pretending it’s enough.
If Japan continues responding with mere diplomatic notes, it sends a message: "You can push us, and we won't push back."
This will matter not just today, but when Taiwan becomes the flashpoint, or when the Senkaku Islands are next.
Here’s what Japan must do:
- Replace any administration too soft on China.
- Reinforce U.S.-Japan security ties and revive the Indo-Pacific vision built under Prime Minister Abe.
- Prepare economic sanctions as a deterrent mechanism.
- Make it clear that military provocations will be met with military readiness.
The Japanese public must awaken from its pacifist slumber.
Wishing for peace does not protect Japan. Only diplomatic courage and military preparedness will.
Japan cites a “rising sense of crisis” as Chinese jets provoke. But words alone won’t protect a nation. Deterrence must be visible.
#Japan #China #SelfDefense #Deterrence #IndoPacific #SecurityStrategy #Geopolitics